College Basketball betting
January 28th College Basketball news ... Check us out daily for all of these necessary tools to make the big score this college basketball betting season.
Welcome to collegebasketballbetting.com, the site with all of the latest college hoops information.
In order to turn a profit during the college basketball season, you must be up to date on all of the latest news, trends, lines and information.
Check us out daily for all of these necessary tools to make the big score this college hoops season. With all of the latest tips, news, trends and gossip we are confident that we can assist you in turning a profit during the college basketball season.
Welcome to collegebasketballbetting.com, the site with all of the latest college hoops information.
In order to turn a profit during the college basketball season, you must be up to date on all of the latest news, trends, lines and information.
Check us out daily for all of these necessary tools to make the big score this college hoops season. With all of the latest tips, news, trends and gossip we are confident that we can assist you in turning a profit during the college basketball season.
College Basketball betting News
NCAA Sellout?
2010-06-25
In the years to come we will all look back on this era as a time of change. A time when we inaugurated our first black president, a period that saw our economy turn upside down, and an entire nation affected…even the NCAA, and NCAA betting
The media has been in a frenzy over the expansion of the Pac-10 conference and the possibility of a completely dismantled Big 12. On Thursday, Commissioner Larry Scott announced the dawning of a new day for the Pac-10, as Colorado’s president graciously accepted the invitation to join the ten other West Coast schools. This news may come as a shock from a geographical standpoint. But UCLA head football coach Rick Neuheisel thinks that Colorado will be a perfect fit, “From a proximity standpoint, its closer to Los Angeles than Seattle is,” he said, NCAA betting is not so sure.
Nice one Rick, but the difference is not that great, only about 100 miles, especially considering that the distance from LA to Seattle is over a 900 mile long journey. Make no mistake that Larry Scott is getting his kicks in Denver dollar signs. Why else would anyone want to alter a conference that has been at the pinnacle of college athletic success for the past 30 years? The addition of Colorado is the first to take place since the addition of the two Arizona schools in 1978.
Mama always said, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. As if the expansion of the NCAA tournament wasn’t bad enough? No, yet again college sports fans everywhere will fall victim to the power of the almighty dollar, their opinions ignored and their input invalid.
Is their no sense of tradition, no sense of pride? I for one, admire Texas’ determination to preserve what is left of the Big-12, as they denied their invitation into the Pac-10 late Wednesday. The Big 12 is back, and the Texas rivalries intact, for now. But the additional departure of Nebraska to the Big 10 leaves the conference with ten teams, which would make playing a conference championship game impossible due to NCAA regulations that require a minimum of twelve teams to be present. This will only add to the mess and controversy that surrounds the BCS each year.
To me it seems like a lot of nonsense for nothing. The Pac-10 and Big 12 have acquired two middle of the road teams at best. Colorado adds no competitive value to either football or basketball, and both of those teams will face a challenge as mountainous as the Flat Irons in the near future, as they face a Pac-10 that will be revamped with even more talent for the upcoming 2011 and 2012 seasons. Perhaps now is the time to take advantage of the proximity to LA, and start recruiting some transfers from USC.
As for the Big 10, Nebraska has been a bottom tier team in the Big 12 in recent years, and that will not change. Their addition will hardly be noticeable. As a matter of fact, I thought Nebraska was already in the Big 10.
In all seriousness, this has been much ado over nothing; except for the Denver TV market that Larry Scott finally got his hands on. When it’s all said and done, when you are dealing with cash, you usually get change. Where do you do your NCAA betting? Head over to www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
CBB: Big Men to play big roles in South Region
2010-03-26
This time of year the mantra of winning college basketball is having great guard play. Every team reportedly needs a player that can control the tempo, knock down shots and defend the perimeter. But what about a big fella in the middle? All four teams tonight have individual or collective key big players that could be the reason they move on to Sunday’s Elite Eight.
Omar Samhan vs. the Waco Gang
Tenth-seeded St. Mary’s has much the same feel as the conference partner Gonzaga had back in 1999. That Gonzaga team went to the Elite 8, with three consecutive upsets, led by guards Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm. Watching that team play, you were struck by the fact they looked like a collection of guys that would be playing at the health club in the not too distant future, not being Mickey D’s All-Americans with a professional career in their future.
Taking a gander at St. Mary’s (28-5, 22-9 ATS), their team has many of those same qualities except for one person, Omar Samhan. The Gaels big man is one of the finest centers in the country and a terrific example of someone who benefitted from four years of collegiate ball. He has an assortment of moves around the basket and always works to make himself available for passes to the post, which is how he’s scored 61 points in two games. Samhan this season has become a more skilled passer, able to find open shooters on the weak side as double-teams are about to arrive. He’s a very big reason why St. Mary’s is 16-6 ATS facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers game this season.
He and 6’11 Ben Allen will be dueling with Baylor’s big men.
The Bears (27-7, 17-10 ATS) have the size and quickness edge in the paint with 7’0 Josh Lomers and 6’10 Ekpe Udoh. It appears Udoh will probably draw Samhan on defense and he has the quickness and arm length to play denial defense and shot-blocking skill to make him hesitant. Lomers also will undoubtedly take a few turns and he has the bulk to match strength with St. Mary’s big men.
Udoh is also a rim-runner, able to play at accelerated pace, which makes him devastating dunker and exceptional offensive rebounder. Baylor’s length at several positions on the floor allows them to be 7-0 ATS vs. excellent three point shooting teams converting 41 or better of their attempts.
Baylor is a 4.5-point favorite, with total having dipped to 142.5 at Sportsbook.com. Though Waco is a long way from Houston (where this game is being played), Texans tend to stick together and the Bears will have partisan fan-base. The Bears are 11-2 ATS having won four of their last five games and are 14-3 OVER after playing a game as favorite this season. Don’t expect St. Mary’s to be intimidated, with the gregarious Samhan always having something to say.
The Gaels are 8-1 ATS in any tournament game this year and 10-seeds are 4-7 SU against three seeds in this round. One bad note for St. Mary’s, if this 10-seed didn’t make the tournament last year (which the Gaels did not), they are 0-7 SU.
JaJuan Johnson takes on Duke brigade
Purdue (29-5, 15-18 ATS) lacked size before Robbie Hummel went down, now they have to find other ways to win. Coach Matt Painter has dug into the old Southern Illinois playbook (his last stop), where he made size not matter. To upset Duke as 8.5-point underdogs, the Boilermakers are going to have to win the battle on the perimeter and have Johnson create a stalemate inside.
Johnson has good moves around the basket, however, as he exhibited against the stronger Texas A&M big men, he can go outside and bank 15-footers and comfortably make 18-footers, which opens the middle for cutters. Much like the win over the Aggies, Purdue has to manufacture points and have a high number of points per possession. The Boilers have cashed eight of previous 11 tickets as neutral site pooches.
Duke (31-5, 20-14 ATS) can bring tall, strong players in waves. Center Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas start things off with solid defense and score enough to have to be guarded by opponent. Next comes the Plumlee brothers, both are aggressive rebounders on each of the floor and what they lack in quicks, they make-up for by using bodies to stay fundamentally sound. Like Purdue, the Blue Devils permit 61 points per game and their opponents only convert 40.1 percent of the time. With Duke’s defense, they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this year.
The oddsmakers believe Purdue will control the tempo, with 127 the listed total. The Boilermakers can’t allow many short Duke runs of 6-0 or 8-2, since they lack the firepower to run with the Blue Devils and are 6-13-1 ATS after a cover dating back to last season. Jon Scheyer and teammates only committed five turnovers against California last Sunday and are 8-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less miscues.
This was the only region to have the expected 1 vs. 4 matchup. The top seeds are 26-10 SU, winning by 8.6 points per game. A key number for the lower seed is score differential to pull the upset. Four seeds that win by 10 or more points are 7-6 when these seeds collide; all others are 3-18 SU. (Purdue is +9.9)
The StatFox Power Lines show Baylor by 4, Duke by 8
Murray St vs. Butler –4.5
2010-03-20
Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends By Steve Makinen
2010-03-09
Hopefully you picked up the Conference Tournament Tendencies article focusing in on the leagues that started their tourney’s last week, as some of the trends uncovered really fared well, especially those dealing with totals. In that piece, I covered the smaller conferences. Here, I am back to address all of the action occurring this week, including the major conferences like the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. Many bettors find the action this week to be even more exciting, or if you want to say, maddening, than the first days of the NCAA tournament. There will certainly be a lot to choose from, both at your sportsbook and on your TV. Make sure you consider the following trends before making your commitments.
Big East Conference
- In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
- The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.
- On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).
- Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%). Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).
- A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.
Atlantic 10 Conference
- UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.
- FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.
- Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).
- The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
- The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).
Big 12 Conference
- There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.
- The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.
- On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).
- The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.
- Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).
Conference-USA
- The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.
- Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.
- The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.
- C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
- Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).
- The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.
- With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).
- Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.
Mountain West Conference
- Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.
- There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).
- UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.
- FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.
Pac 10 Conference
- The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.
- The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.
- FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
- Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.
- UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.
- The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).
Big West Conference
- The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.
- More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.
- The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.
Big Sky Conference
- The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
- There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
- The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
- FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).
Big Ten Conference
- For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.
- There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).
- FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.
- Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.
- DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.
- LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.
Atlantic Coast Conference
- ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.
- UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.
- How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.
- Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.
- Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
- It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.
- The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.
Mid-American Conference
- FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
- The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
- Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
- The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
- OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.
Southeastern Conference
- The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.
- Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.
- In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.
- Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.
- UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).
- In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).
Western Athletic Conference
- UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).
- Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.
- Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.
- The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total. Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.
Enjoy the action this week everyone, and be sure to check back next week for the key information you’ll need to sort out the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT brackets!
CBB: College hoops teams try to make their case
2010-03-02
This evening, ranked teams Vanderbilt and Ohio State are looking for brownie points to enhance their positions in the NCAA Tournament, but what about their opponents, what kind of noise can they make, since it is because of them you even know the name Joe Lunardi, the ESPN Bracketologist. Here is a look at what Florida & Illinois have to do tonight as we play the final regular season week of college basketball. Get the latest lines and key betting information on the LIVE ODDS & GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com.
Leave the alligator alone
Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS) is attempting to reenter the NCAA Tournament after a two-year period making their way thru the minor leagues of the NIT. Depending on one’s point of view, the optimist would see playing ranked teams Vanderbilt (22-6, 13-12 ATS) and Kentucky as a real opportunity to lockdown a bid, while the pessimist would see two more losses coming.
The Gators didn’t help their own confidence, losing at Georgia 78-76 this past Saturday and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss. Nevertheless, the coach believes they will come back.
“This team has played hard all year, and they’ve responded well,” coach Billy Donovan said. “I anticipate that they’ll respond and play as hard as they can. Our guys understand we have to play well to put ourselves in a good position.”
Florida is a three-point home favorite at Sportsbook.com with total of 146.5. The Gators are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and are 11-1 and 8-4 ATS at the O'Connell Center against the Commodores. Vandy is only 4-15 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.
What kind of fight does Illini have?
Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota this past Saturday might be the deciding factor as to why they don’t make the field of 65. Coach Bruce Webber’s team has lost three of four and needs to beat ranked teams Ohio State and Wisconsin this week and probably at least get into Big Ten tourney semifinals to secure a spot. After going thru a period of six games starting in late January where they shot 51.1 percent as team (5-1, 4-2 ATS), Illinois (18-11, 11-15-1 ATS) has gone frigid, shooting 37.3 percent or worse in three of its last four contests.
The off-target Illini were 23 for 72 against the Golden Gophers, yet remain hopeful since they are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 33 percent of their shots or less.
They will take on a motivated Ohio State squad (23-7, 15-15 ATS) who has plenty to play for. This is the Buckeyes last Big Ten game and a victory assures them of finishing no worse than tied for conference crown, with a chance to still win it outright, pending the results of Purdue and Michigan State, who also have four league losses. The Buckeyes have won nine of 10 (5-5 ATS) and are off a non-cover against Michigan, which plays to their favor since they are 27-12 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
The sixth ranked Buckeyes are led by Evan Turner, whose stellar all-around play (21.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals) has him as virtual shoo-in for Big Ten player of the year and in a small group for national player of the year. “I wanted to win a Big Ten title, try to get a national championship and try to be one of the best to ever come out of here,” Turner said.
Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite, however the way the Big Ten season has gone, road teams have enjoyed much success when you least expect it, especially among the top level clubs. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games this season, while the grey and scarlet clad Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in home games after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this campaign.
CBB: Maryland at Clemson (5:30 PM ET, FSN)
2010-02-01
Sunday evenings have become synonymous with the ACC and FSN, and for this week, the network brings a conference clash between Maryland and Clemson. The Terps went into the weekend atop the league standings, but undoubtedly, this will be their toughest ACC game to date. Expect to see a desperate effort from host Clemson, who can’t afford another league loss and still maintain hope of a league title. What will be interesting is how oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com gauge the expected effort of the Tigers.
The Terrapins started the season in the Top 25 and haven’t returned since losing two of three in Hawaii. That started a period of dissonant play in December, however since the calendar started a new year, Maryland (14-5, 8-6 ATS) is looking more like a ranked team again, winning six of seven, including four in a row (6-0 ATS in January). Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is good for at least 20 points most nights and Landon Milbourne has regained a level of more consistent play. Truthfully, Maryland was probably a bit overrated to begin with. The Terps will need everyone to play well against Clemson’s full court press, and they boast a 16-6 ATS record in road games since 2007.
Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS) begins an important stretch of games, playing four of the next five at home after losing three in a row. Finished with Duke and North Carolina, the Tigers can write their own ticket for the ACC, trying to maneuver up from eighth place. Clemson has frequently played imposing basketball, but can’t sustain it for two halves often enough. They’ve built big leads and lost them, fallen behind, then made furious comebacks. Coach Oliver Purnell would prefer to see the momentum pendulum not swing so dramatically. Clemson is 12-4 ATS in home games facing teams converting 45 or percent of their shots.
Maryland has won seven of 11 at Clemson with a 4-6-1 ATS mark. The StatFox Power Line shows Clemson by 1, signs pointing to a tight, down-to-the-wire game.
2010-06-25
In the years to come we will all look back on this era as a time of change. A time when we inaugurated our first black president, a period that saw our economy turn upside down, and an entire nation affected…even the NCAA, and NCAA betting
The media has been in a frenzy over the expansion of the Pac-10 conference and the possibility of a completely dismantled Big 12. On Thursday, Commissioner Larry Scott announced the dawning of a new day for the Pac-10, as Colorado’s president graciously accepted the invitation to join the ten other West Coast schools. This news may come as a shock from a geographical standpoint. But UCLA head football coach Rick Neuheisel thinks that Colorado will be a perfect fit, “From a proximity standpoint, its closer to Los Angeles than Seattle is,” he said, NCAA betting is not so sure.
Nice one Rick, but the difference is not that great, only about 100 miles, especially considering that the distance from LA to Seattle is over a 900 mile long journey. Make no mistake that Larry Scott is getting his kicks in Denver dollar signs. Why else would anyone want to alter a conference that has been at the pinnacle of college athletic success for the past 30 years? The addition of Colorado is the first to take place since the addition of the two Arizona schools in 1978.
Mama always said, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. As if the expansion of the NCAA tournament wasn’t bad enough? No, yet again college sports fans everywhere will fall victim to the power of the almighty dollar, their opinions ignored and their input invalid.
Is their no sense of tradition, no sense of pride? I for one, admire Texas’ determination to preserve what is left of the Big-12, as they denied their invitation into the Pac-10 late Wednesday. The Big 12 is back, and the Texas rivalries intact, for now. But the additional departure of Nebraska to the Big 10 leaves the conference with ten teams, which would make playing a conference championship game impossible due to NCAA regulations that require a minimum of twelve teams to be present. This will only add to the mess and controversy that surrounds the BCS each year.
To me it seems like a lot of nonsense for nothing. The Pac-10 and Big 12 have acquired two middle of the road teams at best. Colorado adds no competitive value to either football or basketball, and both of those teams will face a challenge as mountainous as the Flat Irons in the near future, as they face a Pac-10 that will be revamped with even more talent for the upcoming 2011 and 2012 seasons. Perhaps now is the time to take advantage of the proximity to LA, and start recruiting some transfers from USC.
As for the Big 10, Nebraska has been a bottom tier team in the Big 12 in recent years, and that will not change. Their addition will hardly be noticeable. As a matter of fact, I thought Nebraska was already in the Big 10.
In all seriousness, this has been much ado over nothing; except for the Denver TV market that Larry Scott finally got his hands on. When it’s all said and done, when you are dealing with cash, you usually get change. Where do you do your NCAA betting? Head over to www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
CBB: Big Men to play big roles in South Region
2010-03-26
This time of year the mantra of winning college basketball is having great guard play. Every team reportedly needs a player that can control the tempo, knock down shots and defend the perimeter. But what about a big fella in the middle? All four teams tonight have individual or collective key big players that could be the reason they move on to Sunday’s Elite Eight.
Omar Samhan vs. the Waco Gang
Tenth-seeded St. Mary’s has much the same feel as the conference partner Gonzaga had back in 1999. That Gonzaga team went to the Elite 8, with three consecutive upsets, led by guards Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm. Watching that team play, you were struck by the fact they looked like a collection of guys that would be playing at the health club in the not too distant future, not being Mickey D’s All-Americans with a professional career in their future.
Taking a gander at St. Mary’s (28-5, 22-9 ATS), their team has many of those same qualities except for one person, Omar Samhan. The Gaels big man is one of the finest centers in the country and a terrific example of someone who benefitted from four years of collegiate ball. He has an assortment of moves around the basket and always works to make himself available for passes to the post, which is how he’s scored 61 points in two games. Samhan this season has become a more skilled passer, able to find open shooters on the weak side as double-teams are about to arrive. He’s a very big reason why St. Mary’s is 16-6 ATS facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers game this season.
He and 6’11 Ben Allen will be dueling with Baylor’s big men.
The Bears (27-7, 17-10 ATS) have the size and quickness edge in the paint with 7’0 Josh Lomers and 6’10 Ekpe Udoh. It appears Udoh will probably draw Samhan on defense and he has the quickness and arm length to play denial defense and shot-blocking skill to make him hesitant. Lomers also will undoubtedly take a few turns and he has the bulk to match strength with St. Mary’s big men.
Udoh is also a rim-runner, able to play at accelerated pace, which makes him devastating dunker and exceptional offensive rebounder. Baylor’s length at several positions on the floor allows them to be 7-0 ATS vs. excellent three point shooting teams converting 41 or better of their attempts.
Baylor is a 4.5-point favorite, with total having dipped to 142.5 at Sportsbook.com. Though Waco is a long way from Houston (where this game is being played), Texans tend to stick together and the Bears will have partisan fan-base. The Bears are 11-2 ATS having won four of their last five games and are 14-3 OVER after playing a game as favorite this season. Don’t expect St. Mary’s to be intimidated, with the gregarious Samhan always having something to say.
The Gaels are 8-1 ATS in any tournament game this year and 10-seeds are 4-7 SU against three seeds in this round. One bad note for St. Mary’s, if this 10-seed didn’t make the tournament last year (which the Gaels did not), they are 0-7 SU.
JaJuan Johnson takes on Duke brigade
Purdue (29-5, 15-18 ATS) lacked size before Robbie Hummel went down, now they have to find other ways to win. Coach Matt Painter has dug into the old Southern Illinois playbook (his last stop), where he made size not matter. To upset Duke as 8.5-point underdogs, the Boilermakers are going to have to win the battle on the perimeter and have Johnson create a stalemate inside.
Johnson has good moves around the basket, however, as he exhibited against the stronger Texas A&M big men, he can go outside and bank 15-footers and comfortably make 18-footers, which opens the middle for cutters. Much like the win over the Aggies, Purdue has to manufacture points and have a high number of points per possession. The Boilers have cashed eight of previous 11 tickets as neutral site pooches.
Duke (31-5, 20-14 ATS) can bring tall, strong players in waves. Center Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas start things off with solid defense and score enough to have to be guarded by opponent. Next comes the Plumlee brothers, both are aggressive rebounders on each of the floor and what they lack in quicks, they make-up for by using bodies to stay fundamentally sound. Like Purdue, the Blue Devils permit 61 points per game and their opponents only convert 40.1 percent of the time. With Duke’s defense, they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this year.
The oddsmakers believe Purdue will control the tempo, with 127 the listed total. The Boilermakers can’t allow many short Duke runs of 6-0 or 8-2, since they lack the firepower to run with the Blue Devils and are 6-13-1 ATS after a cover dating back to last season. Jon Scheyer and teammates only committed five turnovers against California last Sunday and are 8-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less miscues.
This was the only region to have the expected 1 vs. 4 matchup. The top seeds are 26-10 SU, winning by 8.6 points per game. A key number for the lower seed is score differential to pull the upset. Four seeds that win by 10 or more points are 7-6 when these seeds collide; all others are 3-18 SU. (Purdue is +9.9)
The StatFox Power Lines show Baylor by 4, Duke by 8
Murray St vs. Butler –4.5
2010-03-20
Like every year, March Madness is living up to its name. It’s been an exciting first round with quite a few upsets and some heart pounding overtime games. I can’t wait to see what’s in store next. In the second round, the No. 13 seeded Murray State is scheduled to play the No. 5 seeded Butler.
Murray State shocked world on Thursday when they defeated the Vanderbilt Commodores 66-65 on a buzzer beater by Danero Thomas and advanced the Racers to their first tourney win since 1988. The Racers battled toe-to-toe with the Commodores all game long and stole it away when Vanderbilt gave them one final chance to win it. They did a great job of containing A.J. Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal, holding them to 12 points apiece. They did miss eight free throws, but it didn't come back to hurt them since Vanderbilt missed 12 themselves. B.J. Jenkins and Isaiah Canaan made big 3-pointers in the last couple minutes of the game which allowed Murray State to gain the lead after being down by 7. The Racers look real good at the moment coming off a big win, but the real question is, will they be able to do it again? And more specifically, will they be able to do it against Butler?
In their first game of the tournament, Butler faced off against UTEP. Butler expertly spaced the floor and made patient passes with usual disciplined style, leaving even the talented Miners unable to keep up. After trailing by six at the half against UTEP the Butler Bulldogs showed how explosive they can be, using a 22-4 second half run to take a 77-59 victory. That run was sparked by sophomore, Shelvin Mack, who went off for seven three-pointers in the game. As a team the Bulldogs made 13 from beyond the arc. Gordon Hayward didn't have a great shooting day from the field, but rather than continuing to shoot he forced his way to the free throw line 11 times. Serving as the unsung hero was Matt Howard as his defense against Derrick Caracter played a major factor in the outcome of this contest. They have a significant talent advantage over the Murray State Racers but they can't take them lightly or they could end up back home just like the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The lines at www.sportsbook.com show that the public is 4.5 in favor of Butler. Against Butler, the Racers are going to need a repeated defensive effort against Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack. Against Murray State, the Bulldogs will need to come out with a lot of intensity since right now the Racers have a whole lot of confidence. So will the Murray State’s Cinderella story fully materialize? I have a strong feeling it won’t and it’ll end when they play Butler. The Bulldogs couldn't have played better in the second half against UTEP and I expect it to continue as they roll past Murray State. Take the Butler Bulldogs -4.5.
Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends By Steve Makinen
2010-03-09
Hopefully you picked up the Conference Tournament Tendencies article focusing in on the leagues that started their tourney’s last week, as some of the trends uncovered really fared well, especially those dealing with totals. In that piece, I covered the smaller conferences. Here, I am back to address all of the action occurring this week, including the major conferences like the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. Many bettors find the action this week to be even more exciting, or if you want to say, maddening, than the first days of the NCAA tournament. There will certainly be a lot to choose from, both at your sportsbook and on your TV. Make sure you consider the following trends before making your commitments.
Big East Conference
- In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
- The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.
- On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).
- Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%). Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).
- A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.
Atlantic 10 Conference
- UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.
- FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.
- Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).
- The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
- The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).
Big 12 Conference
- There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.
- The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.
- On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).
- The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.
- Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).
Conference-USA
- The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.
- Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.
- The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.
- C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
- Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).
- The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.
- With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).
- Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.
Mountain West Conference
- Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.
- There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).
- UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.
- FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.
Pac 10 Conference
- The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.
- The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.
- FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
- Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.
- UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.
- The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).
Big West Conference
- The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.
- More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.
- The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.
Big Sky Conference
- The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
- There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
- The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
- FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).
Big Ten Conference
- For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.
- There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).
- FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.
- Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.
- DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.
- LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.
Atlantic Coast Conference
- ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.
- UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.
- How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.
- Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.
- Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
- It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.
- The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.
Mid-American Conference
- FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
- The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
- Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
- The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
- OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.
Southeastern Conference
- The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.
- Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.
- In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.
- Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.
- UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).
- In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).
Western Athletic Conference
- UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).
- Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.
- Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.
- The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total. Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.
Enjoy the action this week everyone, and be sure to check back next week for the key information you’ll need to sort out the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT brackets!
CBB: College hoops teams try to make their case
2010-03-02
This evening, ranked teams Vanderbilt and Ohio State are looking for brownie points to enhance their positions in the NCAA Tournament, but what about their opponents, what kind of noise can they make, since it is because of them you even know the name Joe Lunardi, the ESPN Bracketologist. Here is a look at what Florida & Illinois have to do tonight as we play the final regular season week of college basketball. Get the latest lines and key betting information on the LIVE ODDS & GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com.
Leave the alligator alone
Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS) is attempting to reenter the NCAA Tournament after a two-year period making their way thru the minor leagues of the NIT. Depending on one’s point of view, the optimist would see playing ranked teams Vanderbilt (22-6, 13-12 ATS) and Kentucky as a real opportunity to lockdown a bid, while the pessimist would see two more losses coming.
The Gators didn’t help their own confidence, losing at Georgia 78-76 this past Saturday and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss. Nevertheless, the coach believes they will come back.
“This team has played hard all year, and they’ve responded well,” coach Billy Donovan said. “I anticipate that they’ll respond and play as hard as they can. Our guys understand we have to play well to put ourselves in a good position.”
Florida is a three-point home favorite at Sportsbook.com with total of 146.5. The Gators are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and are 11-1 and 8-4 ATS at the O'Connell Center against the Commodores. Vandy is only 4-15 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.
What kind of fight does Illini have?
Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota this past Saturday might be the deciding factor as to why they don’t make the field of 65. Coach Bruce Webber’s team has lost three of four and needs to beat ranked teams Ohio State and Wisconsin this week and probably at least get into Big Ten tourney semifinals to secure a spot. After going thru a period of six games starting in late January where they shot 51.1 percent as team (5-1, 4-2 ATS), Illinois (18-11, 11-15-1 ATS) has gone frigid, shooting 37.3 percent or worse in three of its last four contests.
The off-target Illini were 23 for 72 against the Golden Gophers, yet remain hopeful since they are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 33 percent of their shots or less.
They will take on a motivated Ohio State squad (23-7, 15-15 ATS) who has plenty to play for. This is the Buckeyes last Big Ten game and a victory assures them of finishing no worse than tied for conference crown, with a chance to still win it outright, pending the results of Purdue and Michigan State, who also have four league losses. The Buckeyes have won nine of 10 (5-5 ATS) and are off a non-cover against Michigan, which plays to their favor since they are 27-12 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
The sixth ranked Buckeyes are led by Evan Turner, whose stellar all-around play (21.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals) has him as virtual shoo-in for Big Ten player of the year and in a small group for national player of the year. “I wanted to win a Big Ten title, try to get a national championship and try to be one of the best to ever come out of here,” Turner said.
Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite, however the way the Big Ten season has gone, road teams have enjoyed much success when you least expect it, especially among the top level clubs. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games this season, while the grey and scarlet clad Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in home games after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this campaign.
CBB: Maryland at Clemson (5:30 PM ET, FSN)
2010-02-01
Sunday evenings have become synonymous with the ACC and FSN, and for this week, the network brings a conference clash between Maryland and Clemson. The Terps went into the weekend atop the league standings, but undoubtedly, this will be their toughest ACC game to date. Expect to see a desperate effort from host Clemson, who can’t afford another league loss and still maintain hope of a league title. What will be interesting is how oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com gauge the expected effort of the Tigers.
The Terrapins started the season in the Top 25 and haven’t returned since losing two of three in Hawaii. That started a period of dissonant play in December, however since the calendar started a new year, Maryland (14-5, 8-6 ATS) is looking more like a ranked team again, winning six of seven, including four in a row (6-0 ATS in January). Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is good for at least 20 points most nights and Landon Milbourne has regained a level of more consistent play. Truthfully, Maryland was probably a bit overrated to begin with. The Terps will need everyone to play well against Clemson’s full court press, and they boast a 16-6 ATS record in road games since 2007.
Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS) begins an important stretch of games, playing four of the next five at home after losing three in a row. Finished with Duke and North Carolina, the Tigers can write their own ticket for the ACC, trying to maneuver up from eighth place. Clemson has frequently played imposing basketball, but can’t sustain it for two halves often enough. They’ve built big leads and lost them, fallen behind, then made furious comebacks. Coach Oliver Purnell would prefer to see the momentum pendulum not swing so dramatically. Clemson is 12-4 ATS in home games facing teams converting 45 or percent of their shots.
Maryland has won seven of 11 at Clemson with a 4-6-1 ATS mark. The StatFox Power Line shows Clemson by 1, signs pointing to a tight, down-to-the-wire game.